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Association between timeliness of detection, notification and response and the magnitude, severity and duration of disease outbreaks: a retrospective review of 84 outbreaks in Uganda, 2017–2022

BMJ Global Health

Timely detection, notification and response are critical to reducing the impact of outbreaks, yet evidence linking these factors to outcomes has been limited. In an analysis of 84 outbreaks reported in Uganda between 2017 and 2022, Resolve to Save Lives and partners found that delays in detection were strongly associated with higher numbers of cases and deaths and longer outbreak durations. In contrast, longer notification times were linked to fewer cases and deaths, likely reflecting that larger, more severe outbreaks trigger faster reporting. Our study found no significant association between time to initial response and outbreak outcomes. Overall, these findings underscore that faster detection is key to saving lives and shortening outbreaks, reinforcing the value of the 7-1-7 target to promote timely action.

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